Future Fuels Part- 2: Policy Frameworks, Emerging Technologies, and Consumer Engagement

The Future of Renewable Fuels: Policy Frameworks, Emerging Technologies, and Consumer Engagement

In this second episode of Intertek’s Assurance in Action Future Fuels series, experts Liam Mills and Mike Koziar take a deep dive into the rapidly evolving world of renewable fuels. They examine key policy frameworks shaping the industry, explore the cutting-edge technologies driving the next generation of fuels, and highlight how consumer engagement plays a crucial role in adoption. With their insights into both current challenges and future opportunities, this episode delivers valuable knowledge for professionals in the energy sector and anyone interested in sustainable solutions. 

Speakers: 

• Mike Koziar – Director of Renewable Fuels 
• Liam Mills, Sustainable Hydrocarbon Specialist

Don’t miss this engaging conversation—listen now! 🎧

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Transcript

Refaya Zaman Priya: 0:00

Welcome to the second episode of Intertek's Assurance in Action Future Fuels series. I'm Refaya Priya, Global Social Media Marketing Manager for Business Assurance, Caleb Brett, and Food Services. In this episode, we're continuing our exploration of future fuels by diving into key discussions on renewable energy, emerging technologies, and the challenges that lie ahead. Joining us today are two industry leaders from our Intertek Caleb Brett business line: Liam Mills, Sustainable Hydrocarbon Specialist, and Mike Koziar, Director of Renewable Fuels. They’ll guide us through the most influential policy frameworks shaping the global renewable fuels landscape, the impact of sustainability criteria on market access, and the technological advancements set to drive the next generation of renewable fuels, while also discussing future policy trends and how companies can engage consumers to support renewable fuel adoption. To wrap up, we’ll dive into the key takeaways from our conversation on the challenges and future of renewable fuels. Whether you’re a professional in the energy sector or simply interested in sustainable solutions, this episode has something for you. Let’s jump in! Mike, could you start us off by discussing the most influential policy frameworks shaping the renewable fuels industry today?

Mike Coziar: 1:27

Yeah, of course. Thanks, Refaya. So, at the moment, the two most established policies are going to be the refuel EU, I believe, and probably the SAF Grand challenge , uh, started by the Biden administration in the US in 2022. So, refuel EU , uh, is a European mandate, and that basically requires EU airports and fuel suppliers to supply SAF to at least 2% of the aviation for at least 2% of the aviation fuels in 2025 . Um , that will probably vault about 6% in 2030 and , uh, roughly, roughly 20% in 2035. The intention is by the time that we hit 2050, it'll probably be at 70%. So that's , uh, quite a step up in terms of the , uh, grand staff challenge. I think that , uh, the SAF production is , should be increased to at least , uh, 11 and a half , maybe 12 billion liters a year by 2030. Uh, and that's quite a substantial increase because as of 2021, I think the US was considered consuming, probably about 4.5 million gallons a year. So that's, that's a lot, a lot of , uh, volume to be added. Uh, we also have some , uh, almost ready mandates. So for example, the Canadian Council for Sustainable Aviation Fuels has launched a bidding roadmap to produce 1 billion liters by 2030. Uh, that's part of their sort of net zero , uh, commitment. Uh, we've got some Indian mandates coming to place . So India National Biofuels Coordination Committee has set a target , of around 1% sustainable aviation fuel with jet fuel blending in 2027, going up up to 2% in 28. And , uh, we also have Japan's Ministry of Economy , uh, trade and Industry, which is developing a proposal for a 10% staff requirement for international flights out of all Japanese airports. Uh, this is just some of the examples. We also have , uh, other examples , uh, in , uh, China and UAE . So, UAE has announced a guideline of about , uh, 1% I think total fuel supplied by 2031. Uh, and , uh, probably , uh, with the aim of producing around 700 million liters of SAF , uh, per year by 2030 , uh, China has recognized the significant potential benefits of SAF , uh, and , uh, right now what they're doing is , uh, developing policies , uh, through various government bodies to essentially support the production of sustainable aviation fuels. Last but not least, I would also like to mention that Australia is also targeting 10% of its fuel used to come from SAF by 2030. Uh, and , uh, if I'm not wrong, it's probably about 60% that they're aiming for in 2050. So, holistically, looking at this, just to put this into perspective, by 2030, the amount of SAF that is required according to our research, is probably somewhere in the region of 18 billion liters a year. Uh, just to give you an example of what's currently being produced, I believe we're producing somewhere in the region of about 1 billion liters a year , uh, as of 2023. So that is quite the gap to fill. So I guess on that point, over to you , Refaya.

Refaya Zaman Priya: 4:32

That's great. Thank you for that overview. Uh, Mike, now Liam, how about the challenges of the policy frameworks? Can you talk us through about these challenges?

Liam Mills: 4:42

Hi, Refaya. Thanks. Um , so , um, biggest challenge when it comes to regulations is that that rather inconsistent what governments have attempted to do in Europe is create a market for SAF by mandating the amount of the volume of, of SAF that , um, airlines have to use. Whereas the US has , has gone in a opposite direction and create and has incentivized production of SAF , um, uh, to make it readily available on the market, which is important because the demand from the customer is, is increasing , um, on, on almost a daily basis. More and more people are becoming aware of the need to decarbonize and, and aviation is a hard to abate sector has be , is becoming un under intense scrutiny for its , uh, significant , uh, CO2 emissions. The biggest barrier at the moment to, to getting , uh, to hitting these mandates is that , uh, is production volumes, as Mike said, that we've got a significant gap to meet from production, but jet fuel has always been a globally trade , uh, traded commodity and sustainable aviation fuel should follow suit.

Refaya Zaman Priya: 5:50

That was really insightful. Thank you so much, Liam. Now back to Mike. Looking ahead, what policy shifts do you expect to have a major impact on the renewable fuels industry? I'm sure a lot of companies are eager to know what's coming.

Mike Coziar: 6:03

Yeah, sure. Refaya. So as we all know , uh, the red free , uh, legislation is about to drop probably in 2025. That's the renewable energy directive, which we're all looking forward to , uh, quite an important piece of sort of legislation or guidance because basically the whole point of the renewable energy directive is essentially to increase the renewable energy share in the market. Of course , uh, there are some ambitious targets. Uh, it also promotes , uh, energy efficiency and kind of in supportive, you know , uh, sustainable biofuels. It fosters innovation and it enhances corporation between not only government and clients, but clients and consumers. And it , uh, it creates an environment for renewable fuels to flourish. So it's, it's a very significant driver of , uh, renewable energy development in the eu. We also have some developments in the UK where potentially we're expecting a he a cap to be introduced. So this will essentially restrict the amount of HVO that can be imported into the uk, but hopefully that that would prove, it'll prove positive for innovation within the sector, because it does mean that the UK will seek alternative supply , uh, of feedstocks and potentially even look at producing synthetic fuels from the likes of , uh, pyrolysis oils, for example. What we also anticipate is, you know, I've mentioned the sort of the nine or 10 mandates that we just discussed in the previous section. We are hopefully expecting the global consensus on mandates to become , uh, more important. So what we're going to be seeing predominantly is alignment between the , uh, sort of mandates and the amounts of fuels that can be blended into things like aviation fuel or renewable diesel, for example. Uh, so , uh, you know , by , by the time we're hitting 2030 , uh, there should be a lot more alignment , uh, a lot more collaboration in terms of, you know, how the business works, how the market for renewables works in general, and also a harmonization of standards. So people will start to become more aware of, you know, how to detect, for example, alteration and feed stocks, how to give confidence to the market , uh, what the blending mandates would be for each pathway of sustainable aviation fuels , uh, and so on. So in general, it looks like an incredibly positive environment , uh, and it looks like a lot of , there's a lot of government support , uh, across the world. Uh, but yeah, I mean, in general, I don't want to speculate until red three lands, but I think that there'll be quite a lot of , uh, very nice additions of r FBOs and other feedstocks , uh, which really expand the optionality within the market.

Refaya Zaman Priya: 8:35

Thank you so much, Mike. These are some really great insights. Let's talk about the technology roadmap. Speaking of the future, what emerging technologies do you think will be key to advancing the next generation of renewable fuels? Maybe Liam, you can give your inputs on this.

Liam Mills: 8:51

Yes, we actually touched on this in , uh, in part one of the , uh, part one of the podcasts, but effectively the next generation of fuels that we , that we see emerging at the moment will have minimal competition for ped stocks and, and really excel in reducing the, the carbon emissions of, of , uh, transportation processes like algal biofuels or , or municipal waste to fuels will have a significant impact in the market , uh, and, and be able to produce significant quantities of materials, both, both sustainable aviation fuels and road transport fuels and marine fuels as well, whilst also being able to meet specifications that we, that we know today. However, with these processes, cost is an issue. The majority of these are linked to the production of green hydrogen, which is a , is a , a significant cost as we know it today. As the development of the green hydrogen sector increases , um, the cost will decrease. Some of our customers are suggesting that the , actually the, the green hydrogen price could be so low, that direct air capture of CO2 and Fisher TRS reactions could actually produce fuel cheaper than , uh, fossil fuels, where the , but there is some conation in the market about where that green hydrogen price will eventually end up. These, these fuels, these renewable fuels will still be needed for a significant time yet , um, as I, as I mentioned, the aviation sector is a hard to abate sector whilst companies like Airbus are working on hydrogen and electrification of, of planes, battery electric or hydrogen fuel flight is not a short term possibility. The , we , we are looking at 2040 or 2050 before a an initial , uh, initial prototype is actually , uh, is , is available. And then obviously there is a significant amount of testing to ensure these flights are possible on a , on a grand scale.

Refaya Zaman Priya: 10:49

Great point so far. Thank you so much, Liam. One thing that can be overlooked is consumer engagement. How can companies effectively get consumers on board to support the adoption of renewable fuels? I would love to hear inputs from both of you on this point. Yeah,

Mike Coziar: 11:05

I'll, I'll start. So , uh, I guess the key points here would be , uh, mainly educational and awareness in this case. Uh, what we mean by that is that not a lot of people are aware of the benefits, especially the environmental benefits of using renewable fuels. So as we know, and , uh, it's been fairly advertised in our industry that , uh, sustainable aviation fuels can cut emissions by 80%. However , uh, what the consumer sees usually on , uh, one of the airline sites is just a tick box saying, do you want to offset your carbon for the additional price? That's not really any sort of marketing really, that's kind of just playing on your conscience in terms of, you know, getting you to think about the carbon impact. It would be much better serving the , the customer to , to educate them about the benefits of using renewable fuels and how that can positively impact the environment and the future for the generations to come. Yes, it will be a a little bit costly , uh, but this is really because the market is so new and , uh, unfortunately we still have some way to go to develop the infrastructure, the technology to innovate the appropriate methodology of production to match the standard sort of fossil fuels that are currently being provided. But , uh, you know, the positive on this is the fact that globally speaking, you know, as we've just discussed mandates, this has been well noticed , and there is of course the , uh, Paris Accord , uh, which was set up in 2016, which commits , uh, the global governments to , uh, essentially reduce carbon emissions. This, so , so this accord, although understood by governments, does not really filter down to the current sort of , uh, your standard consumer. And this is where education and awareness really comes to play. And, you know, companies like Intertech are breaking ground by educating not only the clients, but we're also trying to reach , uh, you know, your standard people to explain to them the benefits of these renewable fuels. Liam, anything to add?

Liam Mills: 12:55

I I think it's important to note that the , uh, the aviation industry, if we're talking about SAF , is a highly regulated and complex industry. These fuels aren't a work of a moment, and there's a significant amount of testing to ensure that they, they are a safe and suitable solution to decarbonize the aviation industry. And there's an important education element within, within understanding the work going into , um, certify these fuels, both from a sustainability perspective and, and a safety element.

Mike Coziar: 13:25

Yeah, I think I'd also argue on another point that, you know, a lot of people usually compare renewable fuels, something close to, you know, battery powered cars, for example, right? A lot of people , uh, start suffering from range anxiety. Uh, they might not necessarily know whether they're purchasing , uh, biofuel or not, and as a result, all what they could do potentially to their cars or to the airplane. So there's a little bit of nervousness there. So what we do need to do as an industry in general is to explain to the overall public that renewable fuels are a very good alternative to fossil fuels, and , uh, they could potentially be even cheaper than sort of the battery alternative, especially in terms of, you know, basically being a drop in fuel and not necessarily , uh, you know, needing to pay for very expensive batteries , uh, which make the car heavier and your insurance costs a lot more. So, you know, we , we need to tackle this holistically, I think , to, to get , uh, the public to understand all the, all the benefits of renewable fuels.

Refaya Zaman Priya: 14:24

That's been a fascinating discussion. Thank you both so much. Uh, before we wrap up, what would you say are the most important takeaways from both episodes of our Future Fuels podcast? Any final thoughts?

Mike Coziar: 14:35

Yeah, there's quite a few final thoughts , uh, but let's try and summarize. So , uh, over the last couple of episodes , uh, you know, in this podcast we covered some key concepts which we believe are important to summarize to our listeners, right? So we've defined what the biofuels are. Uh, Liam, do you wanna quickly recap the definition just in case?

Liam Mills: 14:54

Yeah. So renewable fuels are effectively , uh, fuels which come from a , uh, a renewable source, to put it as simply as that they, they don't contain any fossil content and their , the production of them generally reduces CO2 emissions. Now, those emissions may be in a, in a cycle if you are using something like direct air capture, and the the intention is to recapture those, those , uh, those emissions and reprocess them into fuels. But generally, we can split them into two areas. One is biofuels , uh, which is the , uh, turning , uh, biogenic waste such as agricultural waste or, or used , uh, used edible oils into, into fuels or through , uh, what known as , uh, rebos or renewable fuels, not a biological origin, which generally come from a chemical process, which many people have heard of, of , of fisher trs, which are then pressed into , uh, into , uh, services as a , as a hydrocarbon.

Mike Coziar: 15:51

Cheers , Leo . Very detailed. So, yeah. Uh , secondly, we of course, we reviewed the feedstock availability, and I think the key message here is that feedstocks are a finite resources , uh, for which all the major players in the market are currently competing for, you know, without finding and accepting new feedstock sources, prices will likely go up, and the risk of alteration of fraud will probably, unfortunately go up as well, because the opportunity becomes irresistible for unscrupulous operators. Uh , so, you know, key key points here is that, you know, we need rigorous , uh, chain , uh, supply chain monitoring, including new testing solutions. Uh, we need solutions via technology, of course , uh, we need robust policy frameworks, and of course, carbon 14 testing , uh, sort of just , just to prove that, you know, there aren't any sort of , uh, fossil , uh, contaminants there. Uh, so it , you know, all this needs to be , uh, used to prevent fraud and adulteration within the industry. Uh, some next points we discussed, of course, is , uh, new ways to fuel solutions and the sector of innovations, the , the key to managing supply chain challenges. Uh, for this, we need government support and an environment which encourages investments into the developments and of new products, methods and new feedstock pathways. Uh, we also discussed the fuel quality and performance. Uh, Liam, anything to say on that?

Liam Mills: 17:07

Well , quality and performance of fuel is, is defined by the specifications for the , for those fuels, which are driven from engine manufacturers, whether that's road transport, marine transport, or aviation. And the , the quality is , uh, the quality of the fuel is, is controlled very restrictively by the , uh, by the specifications. So , um, if, if someone is buying a fuel or using a fuel, they can rest assured that the specifications will, will , uh, provide the appropriate performance as they expect.

Mike Coziar: 17:38

Excellent. And then of course, we focus really heavily on part one with regards to economic challenges. So , uh, around cost competitiveness, and , uh, if you remember, we talked about the types of renewable fuels and , uh, feed stocks , uh, which greatly influence the cost of production, the type of technology and market dynamics and government policies, which contribute to the cost of the product. Uh, and of course, techn , uh, technological advancements and robust governance support, which actually helps renewable fuels compete versus standard fossil alternatives In terms of market adoption. On economic practice , uh, cost , uh, uh, infrastructure market are key . Uh, there is technological challenges such as efficiency, scale up and feedstock availability. Uh, there's policy and regulation , uh, which can sometimes hinder , uh, hinder growth. Uh , so basically, you know, reduction in complexity, increase in certainty and reduction of trade barriers is probably key to the success of renewable fuels. And then of course, we talked a little bit about what kind of services Insec can provide to our clients and why public in general. Uh , we talked about r and d support, we talked about training, we talked about consultation and support by different business lines such as industry services or business assurance. And of course, for our producers out there, we have outsourcing solutions for the full package , uh, to ensure they get their product to market. Uh, finally , uh, one thing we also discussed is the challenges of scaling up. And , uh, basically the core message here is that everybody struggles to secure capital without sufficient capital investment. Pilot plants cannot go into commercial production to , uh, contribute to the, the, the amount of supply of , uh, renewable fuels that's actually required to, to meet the accords mandates. Uh, we need good feedstock availability, which is sometimes challenging because it's sometimes restricted either by government policy or by essentially availability. And then of course, we need good infrastructure and logistics to get the products to the consumer. Uh, it that will be key in the future. Finally, we also need to educate the consumers to accept renewable fuels as an alternative to fossil fuels, simply because we need to reduce pollution and care for the environment more. In terms of this session here , uh, just to recap , uh, we've covered policy frameworks and our predictions for future evolutions. So, and of course, we reviewed the roadmap to adoption of fuels and covered what is required for better customer engagement. Uh, Liam, have I missed anything else? No,

Liam Mills: 19:59

I will just end with saying that there's a large number of pathways to renewable fuels, both in production and in the r and d phase, collaboration between companies such as insect and these fuel producers can help bring these in innovative processes to market faster, navigating the , the specification of regulatory challenges that arise on a day-to-day basis.

Mike Coziar: 20:19

Excellent. And I think for our listeners there, what I want to say is that intech is definitely ready to support our clients to achieve their strategic goals regarding renewable fuels. Uh, we're ready to support them in dealing with the challenges associated with operating in this growing market. Uh, we're ready to train them, we're ready to educate them, and of course, we're ready to support them in any way , shape , uh, or form possible. So hopefully we'll get in some inquiries soon.

Refaya Zaman Priya: 20:43

This brings us to the end of part two of our Future Fuels series. Liam and Mike, thank you for sharing your expertise on the policies, sustainability criteria, and technology advancements shaping the industry. It’s evident that while challenges remain, there’s incredible potential for growth and innovation. We hope this episode has provided valuable insights for everyone tuning in, whether you’re in the energy sector or simply curious about the future of renewable fuels. If you enjoyed this episode, don’t forget to subscribe, and share it with your network. Stay tuned for more in-depth discussions on Assurance in Action as we continue to explore the path to a more sustainable future. Thank you!

Speaker 4: 21:32

Thank you .